Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 0.254199 0.308649 0.374916 0.462490 0.576669 0.722585 9.266279e-01
2025-05-11 0.172436 0.228188 0.303915 0.417062 0.586835 0.840767 1.267183e+00
2025-05-18 0.119986 0.169470 0.242638 0.363322 0.567163 0.917760 1.618020e+00
2025-05-25 0.086439 0.128754 0.195886 0.316420 0.542691 0.986176 2.038911e+00
2025-06-01 0.067928 0.106449 0.171885 0.299781 0.567701 1.173042 2.929658e+00
2025-06-08 0.054831 0.089922 0.153351 0.287583 0.600414 1.417684 4.376037e+00
2025-06-15 0.045618 0.078039 0.140173 0.282193 0.650607 1.772867 7.010944e+00
2025-06-22 0.038496 0.068416 0.128911 0.277572 0.705678 2.232854 1.173286e+01
2025-06-29 0.031844 0.058300 0.114100 0.259479 0.716245 2.587755 1.795940e+01
2025-07-06 0.024303 0.045029 0.089496 0.208161 0.594871 2.277478 1.800560e+01
2025-07-13 0.021170 0.040316 0.083047 0.203688 0.632821 2.800560 3.150141e+01
2025-07-20 0.019175 0.037636 0.080694 0.210302 0.721294 3.828965 7.155684e+01
2025-07-27 0.017412 0.035301 0.079066 0.220525 0.848566 5.654673 2.284364e+02
2025-08-03 0.015588 0.032478 0.075515 0.223535 0.955412 7.968455 8.585056e+02
2025-08-10 0.013674 0.029084 0.069592 0.215829 1.004440 10.182774 3.444682e+03
2025-08-17 0.011963 0.025889 0.063468 0.204874 1.027941 12.520572 1.952340e+04
2025-08-24 0.010874 0.024060 0.060868 0.207138 1.151378 18.348739 2.829105e+06
2025-08-31 0.009936 0.022452 0.058540 0.209763 1.293401 27.758791 NaN
2025-09-07 0.009175 0.021173 0.056926 0.215187 1.483474 45.360666 NaN
2025-09-14 0.008485 0.019968 0.055248 0.219775 1.692140 76.582394 NaN
2025-09-21 0.007680 0.018307 0.051631 0.212598 1.768226 108.386797 NaN
2025-09-28 0.006505 0.015448 0.043319 0.176542 1.434553 80.016869 NaN
2025-10-05 0.006032 0.014534 0.041647 0.176552 1.569681 127.979707 NaN